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|A New Heat Travesty?; Why is the UAH surface record so high?|
|Topic Started: May 18 2010, 01:43 AM (520 Views)|
|mtobis||May 18 2010, 01:43 AM Post #1|
This looks like something that needs explaining.
Spencer's near-surface global temperatures have been extraordinarily high all year.
(Click on the figure to see the whole thing.)
or http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/ for the latest.
Is this real? With ENSO fading one would expect the anomaly to shrink. With the curve diverging warmward still further, it starts to look like something far outside random variation.
Hoping it is a bug at UAH. Yikes. If it's real, what is it? Is whatever got Kevin's extra heat giving it back? Any ideas?
|SkyHunter||May 18 2010, 02:19 PM Post #2|
||Tropospheric temperatures lag surface temperatures. The Jan-April period is the warmest on record. Expect to see high temps for the lower troposphere for the next few months.|
|apsmith||May 18 2010, 04:24 PM Post #3|
||it would be interesting to look at tropical vs global numbers on this, I'll have to crank out my old analysis which I've been meaning to do for a long time anyway... Tropically the troposphere temperature changes should be some multiple of surface temperature change (Monckton's "hot spot") but globally it's not been clear to me if there really should be any overall amplification, despite the 1998 incident.|
|dorlomin||Jun 20 2010, 07:13 PM Post #4|
There have also been very large areas with reasonably high anomalies in the equitorial Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian oceans. This will show up in the UAH data series as much as the centeral Pacific and el Nino.
Also IIRC the UAH mid troposphere temperature set tends to measure the energy released form water vapour as it condenses into clouds rather than just temperature so it will so a big jump any time there is a big anomaly in the equatorial oceans. Others may disagree but I think this is why that dataset tends to emphises el Nino and la Nino compaired to GISSTemp\ HADCru and so on.
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